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How robust is the association between youth unemployment and later mental health? An analysis of longitudinal data from English schoolchildren

Titulo How robust is the association between youth unemployment and later mental health? An analysis of longitudinal data from English schoolchildren
Autoría Wright L, Head JA, Jivraj S.
Fuente Occup Environ Med. 2021 May 26:oemed-2021-107473. doi: 10.1136/oemed-2021-107473. Online ahead of print. 10.1136/oemed-2021-107473
Resumen Background: Several studies show that youth unemployment is associated with worse mental health later in life. However, existing studies report results for only one model, or a few models, and use regression adjustment to support causal claims. We use two novel methods to address these gaps in the literature. Methods: We use data from Next Steps, a cohort study of English schoolchildren who entered the labour market in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, and measure mental health using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) at age 25. We use specification curve analysis and a negative control outcome design (a form of placebo test) to test whether associations between youth unemployment and later GHQ-12 scores are sensitive to model specification or are likely to be confounded by unobserved factors. Results: We find that the association between unemployment and later GHQ-12 is qualitatively similar across 99.96% of the 120 000 models we run. Statistically significant associations with two placebo outcomes, height and patience, are not present when regression adjustments are made. Conclusions: There is clear evidence that youth unemployment is related to later mental health, and some evidence that this cannot be easily explained by unobserved confounding. Keywords: epidemiology; mental health; public health.
URL www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34039760